Fine wine has been here before

The chart below lines the two cycles up at their peaks. From late 2008 the index rose about 65% to a high in June 2011, then fell 36% over three years.

Through 2014 and 2015 prices went sideways. Wine that had failed to sell in the downturn was slowly taken up by the market. Once that stock cleared, prices rose 25% in 2016.

This cycle has followed a similar path: a strong run to September 2022, a 27% fall to the summer of 2025, and a year of stabilisation since. The fall was shallower than last time and took about as long.

Liv-ex measures buying pressure with its bid:offer ratio: the value of live bids divided by the value of live offers. In September the ratio on the Liv-ex 100 averaged 1.13, its highest reading since October 2022.

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At the index low in August 2025 the ratio was about 0.57, or roughly £1.75 of wine offered for every £1 bid. Liv-ex reports that the move since has come from both sides: more bids and fewer offers.

Fewer offers is what cleared stock looks like on a trading screen. The same process took two years in 2014 and 2015.

The Liv-ex 1000 is the broadest measure of the market. It rose 0.6% in September, its sharpest monthly rise since 2022.

All seven regional indices inside it now stand higher than a year ago. Within the Liv-ex 100, 55 wines rose in September, 36 fell and nine were flat.

The most traded wines turned first, in August 2025. Our own index of 52,147 wines found its floor six months later, in February 2026.

One example with real trades behind it: Vega Sicilia Unico 2014 last changed hands at £3,100 for a case of twelve. Its 2025 low was £2,600, so the price has risen 19%.

The recovery has not reached everything. Recent Bordeaux vintages are still falling, and the first growths index, the Liv-ex 50, sits 24.8% below its level of five years ago. Timing helps, and selection still decides the result.

Three paths from here

The cycle chart carries three illustrations for the eighteen months to March 2028. Each assumes prices hold through the winter and recovery begins in March 2027, the point in the cycle at which the 2016 rally started.

• Upside: a repeat of 2016, with prices rising 25% a year. The index gains 26%.
• Central: half the 2016 pace. The index gains 14%.
• Low: prices rise 2% a year. The index gains 3%.

These are illustrations and we are not forecasting. One earlier cycle is thin evidence. None of the three paths shows a fall, and a fall is possible: the last cycle dipped once more in 2015 before it rallied, and the tariff threat of March 2025 set this market back just as it had begun to steady.

What the last cycle does show is who collected the 25%. It went to people who owned wine at the end of 2015, bought while prices were flat and the headlines were dull. Buyers who waited for proof paid 2016 prices.

Today’s buyer pays about 23% less than the buyer of September 2022 and meets more bids than offers.

Whether you drink, collect or invest, the wines are on CultX with a live bid and offer on each.

Our next email shows where prices are rising and where they are still falling.

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