By
CultX Team
A pre-release research briefing on the most anticipated Bordeaux vintage in years, built for investors and serious collectors using live CultX market data.
All prices in GBP, in-bond, per six-bottle case unless stated. Expected 2025 entry prices shown at +5% and +10% versus the 2024 EP release. Storage assumed at £1.20 per bottle per year, in bond. Internal Rate of Return target based on a 7% annualised net return over three years from purchase to sale.
Bordeaux 2025 is being spoken about, quietly but with growing conviction, as a vintage of genuine distinction. Trade tastings have benchmarked it against 2022, 2020 and 2019. No formal critic scores have been published at the time of writing, but the early consensus across négociants and château technical teams points to exceptional balance, concentration and freshness. Our companion vintage report, Bordeaux En Primeur 2025 Vintage: Quality Delivers, Pricing Decides, covers what the wines actually taste like. This article covers something different: whether to buy them, and at what price.
The question for buyers is not whether 2025 is a great vintage. It almost certainly is. The question is whether it can be bought at a price that makes sense, both as an investment and as a wine to put in the cellar. That requires a different analytical lens from most en primeur previews. This is not a tasting note compilation. It is an investment research note, with a collector overlay.
Our framework rests on three pillars. First, a recognition that the Liv-ex 100 is down approximately 25 to 30 percent from its 2022 peak. This is not a crisis. It is a correction. Current secondary market prices for 2019, 2020 and 2022 vintages have already cleared at lower levels than their original release prices. These are the correct comparators. Not what those wines originally cost, but what they cost today. Second, a disciplined pricing model: every wine assessed at its expected ex-London consumer entry price, in GBP per six bottles in bond, with a 7 percent annualised return target tested over a three-year horizon against current comparable vintage prices. Third, a qualitative overlay: liquidity, brand depth and vintage performance patterns that distinguish investable from merely collectible.
Two Tier 1 (Strong Buy) conviction names emerge from the analysis. A further eight wines fall into Tier 2 (Buy at +5%) territory of varying strength. A Watch List of names to monitor on release pricing. A clear Avoid List for anyone buying primarily as an investment. And a Collector’s Picks section identifying wines where quality and price make a compelling cellar case, regardless of investment metrics.
The discipline is entirely in the selection.
Try our En Primeur Pricing Tool today on CultX.
Every en primeur preview will tell you, somewhere, that a given château’s 2022 or 2020 vintage is currently trading X percent below its EP release price. Treated naively, this looks like a red flag. It is not. It is the opposite.
A wine that is down 30 percent from its 2020 EP release is not telling you to avoid 2025. It is telling you that the 2020 EP buyer overpaid, and that the market has since corrected to fair value. The current secondary market price, wherever it has settled, is the market’s best estimate of what that wine is worth today at that age. It is the price at which willing buyers and willing sellers are actually transacting.
If you can buy 2025 Bordeaux, a potentially equivalent-quality vintage, cheaper than the current market price of 2020, 2022 or 2019, you are not re-entering the same trade that lost money. You are entering at the market-cleared price, not the inflated release price. The person who lost money was the 2020 buyer. You are not that person.
The corollary is also important. Wines where every comparable vintage is in sustained structural decline, with 2019, 2020 and 2022 all heading lower with no floor in sight, deserve separate scrutiny. A cheap entry into a declining asset is a value trap, not a value opportunity. We flag these explicitly.
The CultX En Primeur page shows expected 2025 release prices at both +5% and +10% versus the 2024 EP, expressed as ex-London GBP per six-bottle case, in bond. These are the numbers we use as consumer entry prices throughout this analysis.
The 7% IRR thought experiment works as follows. For each wine, we ask: if a customer buys at the expected +5% entry price today, and wants a 7 percent annualised net return over three years (with the wine becoming physical in late 2027 and sold in late 2028), what exit price does that require, and is that price realistic?
The formula is straightforward:
Target Exit Price = Entry Price × (1.07³) + Storage Cost = Entry × 1.225 + £7.20
The storage cost reflects one year of in-bond storage at £1.20 per bottle, or £7.20 per six-pack, accruing from physical delivery. We use a single year as the base assumption.
We then compare that target exit price against current secondary market prices for the 2022, 2020 and 2019 vintages of the same wine. This is the feasibility test:
One critical nuance: the downside floor. Current comparable vintage prices represent a natural market support level. It is very difficult for a new vintage of equivalent quality to sustainably trade below the price of older stock in the same wine. The lowest comparable vintage price therefore functions as your realistic worst-case scenario. We report this explicitly alongside each conviction name.
With no formal critic scores yet published, the vintage assessment for 2025 rests on trade consensus and growing season data rather than points. That consensus is, at present, unusually coherent. Multiple sources point to 2025 as a candidate for the short list of exceptional modern Bordeaux vintages.
The three reference points are instructive in different ways.
2022 was a genuinely great vintage, with WA scores running to 99 and 100 at the top end. But release prices were set ambitiously, and the secondary market has partially digested that premium. Most châteaux are 15 to 35 percent below their 2022 EP release at current secondary prices. Buyers who paid full price at release are underwater. But the current price of 2022 vintages represents something valuable. It is a quality-adjusted market floor.
2020 was arguably the most technically impressive red Bordeaux vintage of the last decade, with scores at or approaching 100 across multiple leading châteaux. Its commercial outcome, however, was poor for EP investors. Release prices were stretched, and the secondary market punished that decisively. Canon is down 20.8 percent from its 2020 EP. Pichon Comtesse is down 27.3 percent. The lesson is not that great vintages fail to perform. It is that overpriced entry into a great vintage is just as damaging as buying into a mediocre one.
2019 is the most important reference for investment purposes. Release pricing was more measured than 2020 or 2022, and the market has largely reflected that discipline. Lynch-Bages from EP 2019 is flat. Beychevelle is up 10.9 percent. Montrose is up 1.5 percent. Calon-Ségur is up 0.3 percent. These look like modest outcomes, but in the context of a broader fine wine market that has been through a 25 to 30 percent correction, holding value or making modest positive returns from EP represents genuine outperformance.
The 2025 vintage, if the trade consensus holds, sits in this bracket. The investment implication is not "buy everything". It is buy selectively, at a price that already reflects current market reality, and let the vintage quality do the rest.
Pauillac contains the deepest secondary market liquidity in Bordeaux. Three First Growths, a cluster of second and fifth classified growths with global recognition, and the broadest buyer base of any appellation. For anyone buying en primeur with a view to selling on the secondary market within three to five years, Pauillac is where you start.
| Metric | +5% Scenario | +10% Scenario |
|---|---|---|
| Ex-London entry price (GBP/6) | £1,629 | £1,707 |
| 7% IRR target (3yr + storage) | £2,003 | £2,100 |
| Current market — 2022 | £2,226 | £2,226 |
| Current market — 2020 | £2,100 | £2,100 |
| Current market — 2019 | £2,100 | £2,100 |
| Downside floor | £2,100 | £2,100 |
| IRR target vs floor | £97 below floor | At floor |
| Verdict | Strong Buy | Strong Buy |
| WA scores 2019–2022 | 95–100 pts | — |
| EP performance, 2019 from release | +0.9% | — |
Mouton is the standout conviction name in Pauillac and the only First Growth where our model produces a Strong Buy verdict at both pricing scenarios. The IRR target at +5% entry is £2,003, sitting £97 below the current floor of £2,100. In plain terms: even if 2025 Mouton only ever trades at the same level as the weakest recent comparable vintage, the 7 percent annualised return is still achieved.
The 2019 performance record reinforces this. Mouton is the only First Growth in our dataset to have essentially held its EP release value (+0.9%) through a brutal market correction. WA scores have ranged from 95 to a perfect 100 across the reference vintages. This is a wine with proven secondary market demand, brand depth across global auction markets, and now, at +5%, a genuinely attractive entry price relative to where comparable vintages are clearing today.
At +10% the IRR target sits exactly at the floor. Achievable, but with no margin. Buy at +5%. If release comes at +10% or above, reassess.
Investor case: Strong. Deep liquidity, global brand, positive EP performance record, and a model that delivers at the floor.
Collector case: Outstanding. Mouton 2025 in a great vintage needs no further justification.
| Metric | +5% Scenario | +10% Scenario |
|---|---|---|
| Ex-London entry price (GBP/6) | £388 | £406 |
| 7% IRR target (3yr + storage) | £483 | £505 |
| Current market — 2022 | £465 | £465 |
| Current market — 2020 | £402 | £402 |
| Current market — 2019 | £400 | £400 |
| Downside floor | £400 | £400 |
| IRR target vs floor | £83 above floor | £105 above floor |
| Verdict | Buy at +5% | Buy at +5% |
| WA scores 2019–2022 | 94–96 pts | — |
| EP performance, 2019 from release | 0.0% | — |
Lynch-Bages enters at £388, below all three comparable vintage prices, with the 2022 at £465 representing the ceiling. The IRR target of £483 sits just above the current 2022 market price, meaning 2025 needs to trade at approximately the level of the current 2022 secondary to hit 7 percent annualised. Given that 2022 is itself down 27 percent from its own EP release, the question is whether a potentially equivalent-quality 2025, bought below current 2022 levels, can recover to that benchmark within three years.
The answer is probably yes, and the 2019 performance record supports it. Flat from EP, the best outcome in the appellation at this price tier. Lynch-Bages has excellent secondary market depth, strong auction demand, and a globally recognised brand that trades consistently across markets. The downside floor at £400 is 3 percent above entry, which is effectively a negligible loss scenario in the worst case. The asymmetry here is attractive.
This is Tier 2 because the IRR target requires a modest recovery in 2022-equivalent pricing. But of all the Tier 2 wines, Lynch-Bages has the best combination of brand depth, entry discount and performance track record. A Tier 2 name with Tier 1 characteristics.
Investor case: Strong. Best value investment-grade Pauillac below £500.
Collector case: Excellent wine at a fair price. The archetypal fifth growth overachiever.
| Metric | +5% Scenario | +10% Scenario |
|---|---|---|
| Ex-London entry price (GBP/6) | £295 | £309 |
| 7% IRR target (3yr + storage) | £369 | £386 |
| Current market — 2022 | £330 | £330 |
| Current market — 2020 | £325 | £325 |
| Current market — 2019 | £312 | £312 |
| Downside floor | £312 | £312 |
| IRR target vs floor | £57 above floor | £74 above floor |
| Verdict | Buy at +5% | Avoid |
| WA scores 2019–2022 | 93–95 pts | — |
| EP performance, 2019 from release | +5.4% | — |
Clerc-Milon carries the most significant positive EP performance record of any mid-tier Pauillac in the dataset. The 2019 vintage is up 5.4 percent from its EP release price, a rare positive return in the context of a 25 to 30 percent broader market correction.
At +5% entry of £295, the wine is below all comparable vintage prices. The 2022 at £330 is the ceiling, and the 2019 at £312 is the floor, meaning there are comparable vintages trading at every level between entry and target. The IRR target of £369 sits above the current 2022 market, making this a Buy at +5% rather than a Strong Buy. The 7 percent return requires the wine to appreciate beyond current comparable market levels, but the positive 2019 EP performance gives a credible precedent.
A Mouton stablemate with consistent 93 to 95 point WA scoring, this is the accessible-price investment case in Pauillac. At +10%, the IRR target exceeds all comparable vintages and the arithmetic no longer works.
Investor case: Solid. Best under-£300 investment in the campaign, with the only positive 5-year EP return in its tier.
Collector case: Excellent Rothschild-family wine at an accessible price.
At +5% entry of £1,862, Lafite enters 15 percent below the floor of comparable vintages (2020 at £2,196). The IRR target of £2,288 sits within the range of current comparables (floor £2,196, ceiling £2,450). On pure pricing mechanics, this is investable.
The caveat is performance history. Lafite is down 31.5 percent from 2022 EP and 9 percent from 2019 EP. It commands the highest brand premium in Bordeaux, and is also the wine most likely to be priced aggressively by the château on release. Watch the final release price carefully. If it comes at +5%, the model supports it. If it comes at +10% or above, it is very difficult to make the case.
Both Pichons enter at levels where the IRR target sits within the range of comparable vintage prices, but the floor risk is meaningful. Pichon Baron’s 2020 secondary market (£500) is close to its +5% entry of £527, and Pichon Comtesse’s 2019 market (£580) is essentially at parity with its £582 entry. At +5%, both are borderline, with entry at or very near the floor and limited margin. At +10%, both move to Avoid.
Buy only at +5%, and only with close attention to final release pricing. For collectors, both are excellent wines consistently scoring 95 to 98 points at WA.
Saint-Julien is the most price-disciplined appellation in the Médoc. Châteaux here have historically been more restrained on EP pricing relative to Pauillac, and the secondary market has rewarded that discipline. The appellation offers several of the campaign’s most compelling risk-adjusted opportunities.
| Metric | +5% Scenario | +10% Scenario |
|---|---|---|
| Ex-London entry price (GBP/6) | £582 | £609 |
| 7% IRR target (3yr + storage) | £721 | £753 |
| Current market — 2022 | £879 | £879 |
| Current market — 2020 | £640 | £640 |
| Current market — 2019 | £606 | £606 |
| Downside floor | £606 | £606 |
| IRR target vs floor | £115 above floor | £147 above floor |
| Verdict | Buy at +5% | Buy at +5% |
| WA scores 2019–2022 | 95–98 pts | — |
| EP performance, 2019 from release | -15.8% | — |
Ducru is one of the campaign’s most structurally interesting names. Entry at £582 sits comfortably below the 2022 market of £879, a gap of £297 or 34 percent. Even the weakest comparable, 2019 at £606, is above entry. The IRR target of £721 sits cleanly in the middle of the comparable range, above the floor but well below the ceiling.
In other words, 2025 Ducru does not need to match its 2022 to hit the target. It simply needs to trade somewhere between 2019 and 2020 levels.
The 2022 at £879 is particularly telling. WA scored it 96 and the market has clearly rewarded that quality, even off its EP release high. A 2025 at equivalent or near-equivalent quality, bought 34 percent cheaper than 2022, is a compelling proposition. The floor at £606 represents downside of just 4 percent against entry. The asymmetry is attractive.
Investor case: Among the strongest in Saint-Julien. Entry well below all comparable vintages, IRR target comfortably within range, and a 34 percent gap to the 2022 ceiling.
Collector case: Second Growth quality at mid-table pricing.
| Metric | +5% Scenario | +10% Scenario |
|---|---|---|
| Ex-London entry price (GBP/6) | £621 | £650 |
| 7% IRR target (3yr + storage) | £768 | £803 |
| Current market — 2022 | £1,050 | £1,050 |
| Current market — 2020 | £803 | £803 |
| Current market — 2019 | £700 | £700 |
| Downside floor | £700 | £700 |
| IRR target vs floor | £68 above floor | £103 above floor |
| Verdict | Buy at +5% | Buy at +5% |
| WA scores 2019–2022 | 95–99 pts | — |
| EP performance, 2019 from release | -19.8% | — |
LLC offers one of the widest gaps between entry and ceiling in the entire dataset. At +5% entry of £621, the 2022 vintage trades at £1,050, a £429 premium above entry, or 41 percent upside to the ceiling. Even the floor (2019 at £700) is 12.7 percent above entry. The IRR target of £768 is effectively the current 2020 market price, meaning 2025 only needs to perform in line with 2020 secondary market values to deliver the target return.
The qualifier is WA score sensitivity. LLC scored 99 points at WA in 2022 and that has generated material post-EP appreciation. If 2025 scores 95 to 96, the 2022 premium will not transfer. But even at a more modest score, the entry price relative to the comparable range is the most forgiving of any major Saint-Julien name. This is high-conviction Tier 2, close to Tier 1 on the downside-floor analysis.
Investor case: Strong. Wide range between entry and ceiling, with a credible floor above entry.
Collector case: One of the Médoc’s greatest estates. Any vintage at this entry price merits serious consideration.
| Metric | +5% Scenario | +10% Scenario |
|---|---|---|
| Ex-London entry price (GBP/6) | £368 | £386 |
| 7% IRR target (3yr + storage) | £458 | £480 |
| Current market — 2022 | £376 | £376 |
| Current market — 2020 | £365 | £365 |
| Current market — 2019 | £360 | £360 |
| Downside floor | £360 | £360 |
| IRR target vs floor | £98 above floor | £120 above floor |
| Verdict | Buy at +5% | Buy at +5% |
| WA scores 2019–2022 | 93–95 pts | — |
| EP performance, 2019 from release | +10.9% | — |
Beychevelle tells a different story from most appellation peers. The secondary market across all comparable vintages trades in a remarkably tight band, £360 to £376, suggesting this wine prices very consistently regardless of vintage. That consistency is both reassuring (stable floor) and limiting (narrow upside). The IRR target of £458 at +5% entry is £82 above the current ceiling of £376, meaning the 7 percent return requires the wine to trade materially above where any comparable vintage currently sits.
What saves the case is the 2019 EP performance: +10.9 percent from EP release, the second-best outcome in Saint-Julien and a strong outlier in a dataset dominated by negative returns. If 2025 is a better-than-average vintage and scoring confirms quality above the 2022 level, the consistency premium in this wine could support a re-rating. But the arithmetic requires it. Watch the release price and 2025 WA score closely before committing.
An important nuance from the data. Léoville-Barton’s comparable vintage prices have compressed more than expected in the current correction. The 2022 vintage is at £300 and 2020 at £297, below the expected +5% entry of £310. Only the 2019 (£325) sits above entry. The IRR target of £387 requires the wine to trade above all comparable vintages. That makes this an Avoid on the model, not the conservative Tier 1 it might appear at first glance.
This is a wine where EP discipline from the château has unfortunately been overtaken by broader market weakness at the comparable vintage level. Worth monitoring for collectors, but not investable on these numbers.
Pessac-Léognan sits outside the 1855 Médoc classification and is consistently underweighted in commercial en primeur previews. It contains Haut-Brion (one of the five First Growths), La Mission Haut-Brion (effectively a First Growth in quality terms), and a cluster of estates where EP pricing has historically been more disciplined. For investors willing to look beyond the obvious, this appellation offers some of the campaign’s most interesting entry points.
| Metric | +5% Scenario | +10% Scenario |
|---|---|---|
| Ex-London entry price (GBP/6) | £1,551 | £1,625 |
| 7% IRR target (3yr + storage) | £1,907 | £1,998 |
| Current market — 2022 | £2,000 | £2,000 |
| Current market — 2020 | £1,703 | £1,703 |
| Current market — 2019 | £1,720 | £1,720 |
| Downside floor | £1,703 | £1,703 |
| IRR target vs floor | £204 above floor | £295 above floor |
| Verdict | Buy at +5% | Buy at +5% |
| WA scores 2019–2022 | 96–100 pts | — |
| EP performance, 2019 from release | -4.1% | — |
Haut-Brion carries the most compelling EP performance record of any First Growth in the dataset. The 2019 vintage is down just 4.1 percent from its EP release price in a market that is broadly down 25 to 30 percent. That relative outperformance is not accidental. It reflects consistent WA 96 to 100 scoring, disciplined release pricing, and deep, diversified global demand. The 2020 scored a perfect 100 at WA. The 2022 scored 97 to 100.
At +5% entry of £1,551, the wine sits 9 percent below the floor (2020 at £1,703) and 23 percent below the ceiling (2022 at £2,000). The IRR target of £1,907 requires trading at between the 2020 and 2022 market levels, entirely credible if 2025 quality confirms the vintage comparison. The downside floor at £1,703 represents a 9 percent loss from entry in the absolute worst case, limited relative to the 24 percent upside if 2025 trades at 2022 levels.
For long-duration holders (5 to 10 years), this is arguably the most attractive entry point in the campaign.
Investor case: Best First Growth risk and return on current numbers.
Collector case: Haut-Brion is a singular wine, arguably more food-friendly and earlier-drinking than Médoc First Growths, with no less cellar potential.
| Metric | +5% Scenario | +10% Scenario |
|---|---|---|
| Ex-London entry price (GBP/6) | £208 | £217 |
| 7% IRR target (3yr + storage) | £262 | £273 |
| Current market — 2022 | £261 | £261 |
| Current market — 2020 | £247 | £247 |
| Current market — 2019 | £230 | £230 |
| Downside floor | £230 | £230 |
| IRR target vs floor | £32 above floor | £43 above floor |
| Verdict | Buy at +5% | Buy at +5% |
| WA scores 2019–2022 | 94–97 pts | — |
| EP performance, 2019 from release | -0.4% | — |
Domaine de Chevalier is the sleeper pick of the Pessac-Léognan campaign. At +5% entry of £208, the wine is below all three comparable vintage prices. The floor (£230) is 10.6 percent above entry. The IRR target of £262 sits fractionally above the ceiling (£261), meaning the model technically reads Tier 2, but it is one pound above the ceiling of comparable vintages. In practical terms, this is as close to Tier 1 as any Tier 2 wine in the dataset.
The 2019 EP performance is essentially flat (-0.4%), the best retention record in Pessac-Léognan at this price tier. WA scores are consistently 94 to 97. This is a wine the market has historically valued with quiet consistency. Bought at a price that offers real downside protection with limited upside ceiling. For collectors and investors new to Bordeaux en primeur, this is the most accessible, lowest-risk entry in the campaign.
Investor case: Best risk and reward per pound in the appellation.
Collector case: Outstanding Pessac-Léognan Cru Classé at under £220 per six-pack. Exceptional value for a wine with genuine ageing potential.
| Metric | +5% Scenario | +10% Scenario |
|---|---|---|
| Ex-London entry price (GBP/6) | £396 | £414 |
| 7% IRR target (3yr + storage) | £492 | £514 |
| Current market — 2022 | £580 | £580 |
| Current market — 2020 | £410 | £410 |
| Current market — 2019 | £408 | £408 |
| Downside floor | £408 | £408 |
| Verdict | Buy at +5% | Buy at +5% |
| WA scores 2019–2022 | 96–100 pts | — |
| EP performance, 2019 from release | -2.0% | — |
Carmes Haut Brion at +5% (£396) sits just below the 2020 and 2019 floor of £408. The 2022 at £580 provides substantial headroom for the IRR target of £492. WA scores 96 to 100 across 2019 to 2022, with near-flat EP retention on the 2019 vintage. The only liquidity caveat is that production volumes are smaller than Haut-Brion, which can work in both directions: harder to buy, but also harder to sell at volume. For investors with smaller case quantities, this is very attractive.
The data on both names is sobering. Haut-Bailly’s 2022 vintage is down 50 percent from its EP release, the largest drawdown in Pessac-Léognan. Current market prices across all comparable vintages (£290 to £360) are at or below the expected +5% entry of £372. Until the comparable vintage market stabilises, this is an Avoid for investors.
Similarly, Smith Haut Lafitte’s 2020 (£366) and 2019 (£318) market prices are below the expected +5% entry of £403. The floor is £318, meaning downside risk of 21 percent from entry. Only the 2022 at £500 provides upside. This is a wine where the broader market correction has compressed comparable vintage values below entry. Not an attractive investment setup, though both have collector merit at the right price.
Saint-Émilion requires the most disciplined approach of any appellation. The combination of classification controversy, historically aggressive EP pricing, and severe secondary market drawdowns across multiple vintages creates a difficult investment environment. Across our priority Saint-Émilion names, the data is stark: Canon down 20.8 percent from 2020 EP; Angélus down 18.5 percent from 2022; Troplong Mondot down 18.3 percent from 2022; Quintus down 50.2 percent from 2022. These are not individual wine stories. They reflect a systemic pricing problem in the appellation.
Against that backdrop, there is one clear exception.
| Metric | +5% Scenario | +10% Scenario |
|---|---|---|
| Ex-London entry price (GBP/6) | £1,784 | £1,869 |
| 7% IRR target (3yr + storage) | £2,193 | £2,298 |
| Current market — 2022 | £2,250 | £2,250 |
| Current market — 2020 | £2,200 | £2,200 |
| Current market — 2019 | £2,250 | £2,250 |
| Downside floor | £2,200 | £2,200 |
| IRR target vs floor | £7 below floor | £98 above floor |
| Verdict | Strong Buy | Buy at +5% |
| WA scores 2019–2022 | 96–100 pts | — |
| EP performance, 2019 from release | +6.7% | — |
Cheval-Blanc is structurally different from every other Saint-Émilion name in this analysis. At +5% entry of £1,784, the IRR target of £2,193 sits £7 below the floor of comparable vintage prices, which cluster remarkably tightly between £2,200 and £2,250 across 2019, 2020 and 2022. The downside floor at £2,200 is £416 above entry. Even in the absolute worst case, where 2025 trades at the level of the weakest comparable vintage, the return target is met.
The 2019 performance record confirms what the pricing suggests: +6.7 percent from EP, one of very few positive outcomes across the entire Bordeaux investment universe over this period. This is not coincidental. Cheval-Blanc is the most liquid Saint-Émilion by some distance, with a global buyer base that closely mirrors the First Growths. WA 96 to 100 across the reference vintages. The 2022 earned 99 and the 2020 scored 96 to 100.
At +5%, this is the only Saint-Émilion name we classify as a conviction buy, and the model agrees. The only Strong Buy on the Right Bank. At +10%, the arithmetic moves to Tier 2 as the target exceeds the floor.
Investor case: The strongest in Saint-Émilion by a wide margin, and one of the strongest in the entire campaign. Floor above target at +5%. Rare.
Collector case: Cheval-Blanc is one of the world’s iconic wines and needs no recommendation from a spreadsheet.
| Metric | +5% Scenario | +10% Scenario |
|---|---|---|
| Ex-London entry price (GBP/6) | £621 | £650 |
| 7% IRR target (3yr + storage) | £768 | £803 |
| Current market — 2022 | £1,050 | £1,050 |
| Current market — 2020 | £750 | £750 |
| Current market — 2019 | £680 | £680 |
| Downside floor | £680 | £680 |
| Verdict | Buy at +5% | Avoid |
| WA scores 2019–2022 | 97–100 pts | — |
| EP performance, 2019 from release | -0.8% | — |
Figeac at +5% (£621) is 9 percent below the floor (2019 at £680) and 41 percent below the ceiling (2022 at £1,050). The 2019 EP performance is essentially flat (-0.8%). The IRR target of £768 sits between the 2020 and 2022 market prices, achievable with normal market conditions. WA 97 to 100 across 2019 to 2022, including 99 for 2022. A quality wine at an attractive relative price, but the floor risk (£680 against £621 entry means 9 percent downside) requires careful attention. Buy at +5%, avoid at +10%.
The following names all show IRR targets that either exceed all comparable vintage prices, or have floors below entry that create asymmetric downside: Pavie, Troplong Mondot, Canon, Quintus, Angélus, La Mondotte, Le Carillon d’Angélus, La Chapelle d’Ausone. In each case, the secondary market for comparable vintages does not provide sufficient support for the investment case at expected release pricing. These are wines for collectors who are buying to drink, not to generate a return.
Pomerol produces some of the world’s most hedonistic and long-lived wines, but the appellation’s investment case is complicated by small production volumes and the variability of secondary market liquidity. The analysis here is more collector-weighted, with one extraordinary exception.
| Metric | +5% Scenario | +10% Scenario |
|---|---|---|
| Ex-London entry price (GBP/6) | £3,943 | £4,131 |
| 7% IRR target (3yr + storage) | £4,838 | £5,068 |
| Current market — 2022 | £4,696 | £4,696 |
| Current market — 2020 | £4,000 | £4,000 |
| Current market — 2019 | £4,000 | £4,000 |
| Downside floor | £4,000 | £4,000 |
| Verdict (model) | Tier 2 (Amber) | Avoid (Red) |
| Verdict (override) | Strong Buy | Buy at +5% |
| WA scores 2019–2022 | 97–100 pts | — |
| EP performance, 2019 from release | +134.6% | — |
| EP performance, 2022 from release | +26.2% | — |
The model gives Lafleur a Tier 2 verdict at +5% because the IRR target (£4,838) exceeds the current ceiling (£4,696 for 2022). We override the model here, and it requires explanation.
Lafleur is the only wine in the entire 112-wine dataset with consistently positive EP performance across multiple recent vintages: +26.2 percent from 2022 EP, +134.6 percent from 2019 EP. These are not data anomalies. They reflect the fundamental reality of this wine. Lafleur is produced in approximately 2,000 cases per year. It scores 97 to 100 at WA consistently. Its secondary market is driven by global demand from a collector base with minimal price sensitivity. This is not a wine that obeys the same supply and demand dynamics as a 15,000-case Pauillac classified growth.
The IRR target of £4,838 requires the 2025 to exceed the current 2022 secondary market price (£4,696). Given that the 2022 itself is up 26 percent from its EP release, and the 2019 is up 134 percent, a 2025 of equivalent quality entering at £3,943 and needing to reach £4,838 in three years sits well within Lafleur’s demonstrated trajectory. The model assumes static comparable prices. The data on Lafleur shows that assumption is wrong for this specific wine.
This is the override. We trust the data on the wine more than the data on the model.
Investor case: The strongest single conviction in the campaign for those with the capital. Track record of positive EP performance is unique in the dataset.
Collector case: One of the world’s great wines, made in tiny quantities. If you buy one Pomerol from this campaign, this is it.
VCC at +5% entry of £682 sits roughly at parity with the 2024 secondary market (£678) and 9 percent above the 2019 floor (£625). The IRR target of £842 sits below the 2020 secondary market of £1,275, which suggests material upside if vintage quality confirms. WA 95 to 100 across reference vintages, with the 2020 scoring 100. The 3-year performance from 2022 EP is -24.8 percent, consistent with the broader Pomerol pattern.
For long-duration holders willing to absorb near-term drawdown, VCC represents one of the more credible Pomerol investments. For collectors, this is one of the great wines of the appellation and is being made at the highest level.
Investment analysis is one lens. It is not the only lens. There are wines in this campaign where the return arithmetic does not produce a Tier 1 verdict, but where the combination of vintage quality and accessible price makes a compelling case for putting them in the cellar.
The discipline shifts. Investors ask: will this wine deliver 7 percent annualised? Collectors ask: at this price, in this vintage, do I want this wine in my cellar in fifteen years’ time?
For 2025, several names answer yes.
WA 99 on the 2020 vintage and WA 100 on 2022. One of the great underpriced estates of the Médoc. The 5-year performance on 2019 is +1.5 percent from EP, modestly positive in a heavily negative dataset. At an expected +5% entry around £453 per six-pack, Montrose 2025 is intellectually one of the most compelling wines of the campaign for collectors seeking concentration, longevity and Saint-Estèphe character.
Consistently scores in the 96 to 99 point WA range across recent vintages. At an expected +5% entry around £204 per six-pack, this is Saint-Émilion Premier Grand Cru Classé B at an exceptionally accessible price. The 2025 had a remarkable showing in early tastings, with the patient, passive winemaking approach paying genuine dividends. The 5-year performance from 2019 is -18 percent, reflecting the broader Saint-Émilion correction, but at this price point the wine is meaningful for collectors regardless of investment metrics.
WA 96 to 99 across recent vintages and currently around 18 percent below its 2022 EP release. At +5%, entry sits below current secondary market prices for comparable vintages. For collectors, this is underappreciated. The wine has been on a quality trajectory under recent ownership and the price has yet to fully reflect that.
Outside the conviction list because of First Growth pricing, but worth flagging for collectors. Early tastings reported the 2025 as full-bodied and structured, with freshness and intensity matched by genuine elegance. A late-harvest gamble that paid off. For Margaux collectors, this is likely a vintage to engage with, regardless of where the IRR target lands.
Already covered in the investment section, but worth re-emphasising for collectors. Under £220 per six-pack for a Pessac-Léognan Cru Classé with consistent 94 to 97 point scoring is exceptional value. For cellar-builders, this is the sleeper of the campaign.
The collector’s framework is simpler than the investor’s. If the vintage is genuinely good, and the price is genuinely accessible relative to the wine’s pedigree, the case to buy holds even when the investment numbers do not produce a clean signal. Bordeaux 2025 looks like a vintage where that case applies more often than in recent years.
A point worth flagging for buyers using the CultX platform. The +5% and +10% expected prices in this analysis are headline RRPs based on standard release multiples versus the 2024 EP. They are the prices the trade is modelling.
In practice, CultX is a live marketplace. Buyers do not have to take the RRP. You can place a bid below the listed price, and where sellers are motivated, those bids fill. We see meaningful examples on the platform every week, particularly on releases that have been on the market for several days and where initial allocation buying has slowed.
For the analytical buyer, this changes the IRR arithmetic. A wine that reads as Tier 2 at +5% RRP can read as Tier 1 if you secure it 5 to 10 percent below RRP through a successful bid. A wine on the Watch List moves into conviction territory. The downside floor moves further away from your entry price. The asymmetry tilts further in your favour.
The practical workflow for using this analysis with the CultX platform:
This is how a marketplace works. The headline RRP is the starting point of a negotiation, not the end of one. The investors who do best from en primeur are not the ones who take the first price offered. They are the ones with a clear price target, the patience to wait for it, and the platform infrastructure to act on it when it arrives.
As the campaign unfolds, timing and pricing will matter more than ever. With the CultX En Primeur Pricing Tool, you can follow the Bordeaux 2025 releases as they happen, tracking opening prices, critic scores, and how each wine positions itself against both recent vintages and the wider market. Set price targets, add wines to your watchlist and place bids, all from one place.
CultX account required. Create your free account at app.cultx.com/register.
Bordeaux 2025 en primeur, if priced with discipline, represents the most compelling entry point for both investors and collectors since the 2019 campaign. The vintage quality, on early evidence, is credible. But quality alone has never been sufficient to generate investor returns from en primeur. The critical variables are release price and secondary market depth.
Our framework produces a clear hierarchy.
Tier 1 (Strong Buy): Mouton-Rothschild and Cheval-Blanc at +5%. Both wines where the IRR target sits at or below the downside floor of comparable vintages. Lafleur on override, for those with the capital and a recognition that this wine operates on different rules.
Tier 2 (Buy at +5%): Lynch-Bages, Clerc-Milon, Ducru-Beaucaillou, Léoville-Las-Cases, Haut-Brion, Domaine de Chevalier, Carmes Haut Brion, Figeac. Wines where the arithmetic works at +5% release pricing but does not at +10%. Selection matters.
Watch List: Lafite-Rothschild, Pichon Baron, Pichon Comtesse, Beychevelle, Vieux Château Certan. Buy only on confirmation of attractive release pricing.
Avoid (Investment): Léoville-Barton, Haut-Bailly, Smith Haut Lafitte, Pavie, Troplong Mondot, Canon, Quintus, Angélus, La Mondotte, Le Carillon d’Angélus, La Chapelle d’Ausone. The investment numbers do not work at expected release pricing.
Collector’s Picks: Montrose, Beau-Séjour Bécot, Troplong Mondot, Margaux, Domaine de Chevalier. Wines where vintage quality and price make the cellar case, regardless of investment metrics.
The overriding message is this: en primeur 2025 rewards the selective buyer and punishes the indiscriminate one. The names above their current secondary market floors at +10% release pricing should be left on the shelf. The names at a discount, particularly at +5%, in appellations with proven secondary market depth, deserve allocation. And on the CultX platform, the discipline of placing a bid below RRP rather than accepting the headline number is the single most underused tactic among en primeur buyers.
En primeur is not a guaranteed return vehicle. It is an early-stage investment in one of the world’s few genuinely scarce, appreciating physical assets. Like any IPO, the quality of the underlying asset matters. But the price at which you buy matters more.
Past performance is not indicative of future success. Performance was calculated in GBP and will vary in other currencies. Any investment involves risk of partial or full loss of capital. CultX provides marketplace infrastructure and does not provide investment advice. This article reflects the analysis of CultX Research at the date of publication and may be revised as further market data becomes available.
Related reading: Bordeaux En Primeur 2025 Vintage: Quality Delivers, Pricing Decides — our companion vintage report from the official tasting week. How to Invest in En Primeur — the foundational guide. Why 2026 is the Year to Buy, Renew and Invest in Wine — broader market context.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or regulated advice. Fine wine values can fall as well as rise. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decision.
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